Rose returns to the Garden: Analysis of the Knicks and Pistons recent trade
On Sunday, February 7th news broke from NBA insider Shams Charania that Derrick Rose was headed back to the New York Knicks, in a deal that involved Detroit receiving Dennis Smith Jr. and a second-round pick via the Charlotte Hornets. This is an interesting final destination for Derrick Rose, as there was reported interest from contenders like the Bucks, Clippers, Nets, and Heat as reported by Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports. Rose is reunited with coach Tom Thibodeau, who he won an MVP under in Chicago back in 2011. I wanted to take a look at what this move means for both the Pistons and the Knicks and look ahead to see what the offseason will look like for both players involved in the deal.
Knicks Perspective
With this move, the Knicks are reunited with Derrick Rose, who has had a career resurgence the past couple of years, after hitting rock bottom with the Knicks and Cavs back in 2017 and 2018. With the Timberwolves he was able to revive his career playing under Thibodeau, averaging 18 points per game, but they ultimately decided not to resign him as he moved onto Detroit. After an unfruitful year and a bit with Detroit, he has been reunited with Thibodeau in New York. Many Knicks fans have been concerned about this move, as his addition will add another piece in the backcourt, possibly taking minutes away from rookie Immanuel Quickley. I think that while the concern is warranted, I like the move, as while the Knicks defense is 7th, their offense is lagging way behind at 24th. The addition of Rose helps in the offensive department, as he will help in shot creation and making. While he is no longer averaging close to 8 assists in his prime, he is still a willing passer with the same assist to turnover ratio that he did during his MVP year.
I assume Elfrid Payton will continue to start for now, and Rose off the bench will give the second unit a scoring punch it lacks when Quickley or Rivers aren’t hitting their shots. It will be interesting to see what Thibodeau decides to do with his backup backcourt, as while I think Rose and Quickley can play together, they are 6’2'’ and 6’3” respectively, which might hurt their defense. It is possible the eventual Knicks starting lineup will flip Rose and Payton, balancing the offensive and defensive potentials of both the starters and bench unit.
The loss of Dennis Smith Jr. will not impact the Knicks rotation at all as Smith had completely fallen out of the rotation and was set to join the G-League bubble before the trade. I imagine he will not go to the bubble anymore and will join the Pistons. In addition to Smith the Knicks gave up a second-round pick via Charlotte acquired in a Willy Hernanagomez trade back in 2018. The pick will probably end up in the 33–40 range, meaning that while it is a high value for a second-rounder, it is a reasonable pick to give up for Rose.
Pistons Perspective
I think this deal is a solid one for the Pistons as it was unlikely that Rose would resign in the offseason after two years at the team. A solid value second-rounder via the Hornets could give the Pistons a contributor if they draft well, which is always a big if but they were unlikely to receive too much for a player on an expiring contract. I am interested to see what the other teams that were interested in Rose were willing to offer, as the Clippers are currently shopping Lou Williams and Pat Beverley. I like the move from the perspective of the Pistons as I think acquiring a young player makes more sense for this team in their rebuilding stage than acquiring an older veteran would. As a Mavs fan, I remember the excitement I had a couple of years ago during Dennis Smith Jr.’s rookie season, as he was a high-flying scorer that was fun to watch.
However, he has always been inefficient in scoring the basketball, as his career-high from the field is only 42%. Advanced stats aren’t kind either to his shooting, as his True Shooting peaked at 50% in 2018–19, and he has a negative Box Plus/Minus every season on both offensive and defensive ends of the floor. I am not sure he can turn into a contributor but a rebuilding team like the Pistons is the best place to develop his game. It is a low-risk pickup for the Pistons, but I’m not sure it will pan out.
This Offseason
Both Derrick Rose and Dennis Smith Jr. have expiring contracts this offseason, meaning both of these players might not be on their teams at the start of next season. Derrick Rose will have offers from contenders this summer, as the 2021 Free Agent class has thinned out since all of the extensions this past offseason. Dennis Smith Jr. will not have too many offers and he will certainly not earn his qualifying offer of $7.7 million next season. Realistically Smith’s best chance will be a minimum contract somewhere, possibly with the Pistons if he can show them something this season. The Knicks have lots of open cap space this offseason as they only have about $50 million committed currently. Some of that will be eaten up by guaranteeing Randle’s contract next season as well as the need to decide on Payton, Bullock, and Burks. The new Knicks regime should avoid mistakes of the past and avoid giving massive contracts just because they have the space to do so.
Final Verdict
This is a move that doesn’t impact the league much, as while the Knicks improve, they aren’t going to be higher than the play-in tournament, and the Pistons regress slightly with the move in the short term. There are worse moves to make from both perspectives, and perhaps the second-round pick will produce a good player for the Pistons. However, second-round picks are very hit or miss, meaning the Knicks didn’t give up too much to acquire Rose, making it a solid move for both sides.
